Diversion Chance

Repatriation and Departure Service

The derivation probability provides an indication (high/medium/low) of the extent to which demonstrable departure of a foreign national in the caseload (departure procedures pending at DTenV) is possible, based on factual findings made during the departure process.

Last change on 27th of May 2025, at 13:37 (CET) | Publication Standard 1.0

• Publication category: Impactful algorithms
• Impact assessment: DPIA
• Status: In use

General information

Theme

Migration and Integration

Begin date

2021-10

Contact information

[e-mail]

Responsible use

Goal and impact

Facilitating the return of foreign nationals who are not allowed to stay in the Netherlands in the most transparent, humane and respectful way possible is DTenV's core objective. To achieve this, interviews are held between the foreign national and the director. In this way, information is collected to get the most concrete picture possible of the possibilities for departure. This data is kept in DtenV's primary process system (ISTV). In a data warehouse, some of the data is combined with each other to indicate the probability of departure. The indication is then presented again in ISTV. The purpose of this is simply to facilitate the departure process for the foreign national and for the controller. This allows DTenV to continue to perform its statutory task to the best of its ability.

The impact on people who hold travel documents and cooperate in their departure - and are therefore more likely to do so - means that when the influx is high, they are helped through the process with priority. It may also be that people whose chances of success are estimated to be lower will, for example, make longer use of reception facilities because their process is slower.

Considerations

DTenV works with controllers who determine the optimal departure strategy together with the foreign national in so-called departure interviews. This is to a large extent human work and depends on the professionalism of the supervisor. An advantage of the digital indication as a kind of reference work is the visual confirmation for the supervisor. It is also possible to prioritise on the basis of probability, if there is too little capacity of coordinators to handle DTenV's entire caseload. After all, in the event of a high influx, for instance, it may be necessary to treat people with a higher probability of departure earlier and to realise the high(er) probability departure process. Their cases may have a shorter processing time. This does not mean that people with lower probability will be helped less or not at all in the departure process. It may, however, mean that the sequencing differs from FIFO (first in, first out).

The assessment of the probability of departure does not affect the legal status of the foreign national, or the departure obligation incumbent on the foreign national.

Human intervention

No automated decision is ever made based on the estimated probability of departure. Estimating the probability of departure is one of the main tasks of the directors in DTenV's primary process. They also do this, beyond the indication that can be seen digitally, in their heads. The digital indication generally acts as a reference guide.

Risk management

The probability indication is processed in the data warehouse. Reports are generated about it. A record is also kept at all times of the data on the basis of which the indication was given and this data is constantly updated to the current state of affairs.

Since the probability is displayed in the primary process system, the individual indication of the foreign national's probability of departure is only viewed by those who have access to the foreign national's file.

Legal basis

The basis for assessing the foreign national's likelihood of departure lies in DTenV's statutory duties. These are described in, among others:

- Aliens Act 2000

- Aliens Decree 2000

- Aliens Regulations 2000

- Aliens Act implementation guidelines 2000

- Directive 2008/115/EC (European Return Directive)

- Dublin III Regulation

- UN Refugee Convention (1951)

Links to legal bases

Wetten en regels | DTenV: https://www.dienstterugkeerenvertrek.nl/het-terugkeerproces/wetten-en-regels

Impact assessment

Data Protection Impact Assessment (DPIA)

Operations

Data

• Dublin claim (other country may be responsible for an asylum claim)
• Presence of (replacement) travel documents
• Foreign national's cooperation in departure: it is deduced from registrations in the primary process system (ISTV) whether the foreign national himself takes actions to promote departure, e.g. by self-reporting to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), an NGO or DTenV
• Data-qualified internal country list (data-based list that provides context on countries and cooperation with them)

Technical design

The calculation rules used to indicate the probability of departure are prepared by content experts. In the data warehouse, scores are assigned to previously mentioned data that increase or decrease the probability of departure. These scores are assigned on the basis of internal as well as global information that is constantly updated and supplemented with new findings. These scores are combined into one indication in the data warehouse. The final probability may be high, medium or low. This is shown in the primary process system.

External provider

Internally developed