Please note: The algorithm descriptions in English have been automatically translated. Errors may have been introduced in this process. For the original descriptions, go to the Dutch version of the Algorithm Register.

Calculating future interest expenses

Based on future interest rates, expected government bond issuance patterns and projected cash deficits, among other things, it calculates how the future interest burden on the national debt will develop, or in other words the interest paid by the State on outstanding loans

Last change on 29th of October 2024, at 9:52 (CET) | Publication Standard 1.0
Publication category
Other algorithms
Impact assessment
Field not filled in.
Status
In use

General information

Theme

Public finance

Begin date

07-2019

Contact information

cio-office@minfin.nl

Responsible use

Goal and impact

When financing public debt, interest is paid to investors. These interest charges impact the budget and this model maps out the future interest charges under different scenarios.

Considerations

By forecasting interest costs, it shows the impact on the budget and how sensitive interest costs are to rising interest rates, for example.

Human intervention

Our expected government bond issuance pattern cannot be fully captured by an algorithm. Therefore, outcomes are always tested for plausibility by an employee.

Risk management

Misjudging the sensitivity and magnitude of our interest costs can lead to decision-making with a financial risk. However, this model is only 1 of many sources of information used in financing plan decision-making. As a result, the risk of wrong decision-making is relatively low. Other sources of information include the financing gap, issuance calendars and market demand. In addition, this model is also externally validated for correctness.

Legal basis

Our mission is to finance the Dutch state at the lowest possible cost and at acceptable risk. The interest costs and their underlying sensitivity are made transparent with this model.

Links to legal bases

Artikel 11 Financiering staatsschuld: https://www.rijksfinancien.nl/memorie-van-toelichting/2022/OWB/IX/onderdeel/1075511

Elaboration on impact assessments

No personal data are used in this model. The main data points are current interest rates (public information), current government debt (public information), expected cash deficits of the state (confidential information) and which government bonds the ministry plans to use to finance these deficits (confidential information)

Operations

Data

The main data points are current interest rates (public information), current government debt (public information), expected cash deficits of the state (confidential information) and which government bonds the ministry plans to use to finance these deficits (confidential information)

Technical design

Based on the deficits and our own strategy, we estimate the development and build-up of future government debt. Based on this future public debt, an indication of future interest expenses can be made.

External provider

Developer of the code is SEO

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