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Please note: The algorithm descriptions in English have been automatically translated. Errors may have been introduced in this process. For the original descriptions, go to the Dutch version of the Algorithm Register.

Data-driven Expectations drainage streams

Limburg water board

The model gives as output predictions of the discharge (in m3/s, average per hour) of streams at 13 measurement points. This is done based on 3 different weather models, so there are 3 different predictions per measurement point.

Last change on 4th of August 2025, at 6:43 (CET) | Publication Standard 1.0
Publication category
Other algorithms
Impact assessment
Field not filled in.
Status
In use

General information

Theme

Organisation and business operations

Begin date

01-2025

Contact information

info@waterschaplimburg.nl

Link to publication website

nvt

Link to source registration

nvt

Responsible use

Goal and impact

The purpose of the algorithm is to be able to quickly understand the impact of expected precipitation on stream discharge. The ultimate goal is to be able to predict flooding as early as possible with the highest possible probability and to alert the organisation internally and the Safety Regions in time.

Considerations

Within the conventional hydrological tools, there was only the possibility of generating forecasts of the Ruhr and Geul rivers. These models have a long calculation time. The aim was to quickly gain insight into the expected discharge for predicted precipitation for the other brooks as well. This model offers a solution for that, which has a short calculation time.

Human intervention

The algorithm functions as a decision-support tool. The generated predictions are assessed by subject matter experts within Waterschap Limburg. These experts interpret the outcomes and decide whether and which follow-up actions are needed. The human role is thus crucial in interpreting the model output and taking follow-up decisions.

Risk management

Risk management focuses primarily on the reliability and timeliness of the model. This is done through regular software maintenance, including updating the code base and retraining the model when sufficient new data is available. This monitors the quality of predictions and minimises the risk of erroneous or outdated insights. Any model changes are carefully coordinated with subject matter experts.

Legal basis

The application of this algorithm supports the implementation of the statutory tasks of Waterschap Limburg as stipulated in the Water Board Act and the Water Act. Specifically, it contributes to the task of reducing flooding and ensuring water safety. Predicting discharge based on precipitation forecasts allows early measures to be taken as part of crisis management, and is in line with the responsibilities in the areas of flood protection, water quantity management and providing information to chain partners. Although the algorithm is not an independent decision-making system, it strengthens the water board's information position in the context of these statutory duties of care.

Operations

Data

Precipitation: Precipitation - Weather Information Water Management | The Waterschapshuis

Evaporation: KNMI - Automatic weather stations

Drainage: Water levels / Drainage - WaterstandLimburg

Technical design

GR4H, 4-parameter data-driven model with hourly output

External provider

Open source model (GR4H)

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