Please note: The algorithm descriptions in English have been automatically translated. Errors may have been introduced in this process. For the original descriptions, go to the Dutch version of the Algorithm Register.

Asphalt degradation app

This algorithm helps predict how fast asphalt on provincial roads wears (frays). It uses historical measurements and public map data to provide an expectation of the future state of the asphalt for each road section.

Last change on 11th of February 2026, at 13:35 (CET) | Publication Standard 1.0
Publication category
Other algorithms
Impact assessment
Field not filled in.
Status
In use

General information

Theme

  • Traffic
  • Space and Infrastructure

Begin date

2025-12

Contact information

algoritmes@provincie-utrecht.nl

Responsible use

Goal and impact

Field not filled in.

Considerations

A deliberate choice was made to use a support tool that provides insight but does not make automatic decisions. The outcomes are displayed visually on a map and in a wear curve over time, allowing road managers to assess for themselves what this means for maintenance planning.

Human intervention

The road manager remains fully responsible for maintenance decisions. The algorithm adds an additional indication to existing information, such as physical inspections and previous measurements. Decisions are made in the same way as before, but with more detail per road section.

Risk management

Experts were consulted on wear indicators and data sources. The model, trained with 2024 data and tested on 2025, has deviations <3%. The results are always used alongside other sources, so anomalous predictions can be quickly noticed and checked.

Operations

Data

  • elevation data (AHN)
  • traffic data (NDW models)
  • soil data (BRO)
  • GIS maps with trees (ATLAS Provincie Utrecht)
  • UV index maps, groundwater levels
  • cadastral data
  • historical maintenance data
  • measurements of asphalt grading in accordance with the CROW standard.

Technical design

The algorithm combines various environmental and usage characteristics for each road section. A statistical model (random forest regression) is used to determine parameters that describe how fast the asphalt wears over time.

External provider

integrators.ai

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