Please note: The algorithm descriptions in English have been automatically translated. Errors may have been introduced in this process. For the original descriptions, go to the Dutch version of the Algorithm Register.

Forecast crowds and ballot paper usage at polling stations

Based on the turnout in the first 3 hours (according to the Polling StationApp), a forecast is made over the next 10 hours for crowding and ballot paper take-up.

Last change on 23rd of August 2024, at 13:50 (CET) | Publication Standard 1.0
Publication category
Impactful algorithms
Impact assessment
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Status
In use

General information

Theme

  • Organisation and business operations
  • Law

Begin date

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Contact information

datashop@denhaag.nl

Responsible use

Goal and impact

For signalling potential crowding and related ballot consumption. The algorithm scores normal, quiet and busy. This score is visible on the Queue app for the public. In addition, the election control room uses the data to advise the polling station chairman on additional ballot papers needed. It can also be decided by the polling station chairperson to refer people to another polling station.

Considerations

First version was a count of the actual number of visitors in the Polling Station as input for stock control of the number of ballot papers. This did not work as well.

Human intervention

The algorithm can be stopped in the app at any time and replaced by counts by Polling Station members. As for the process, the Control Room decides to post ballot papers and can also decide not to do so. The crowding indicator in the QueueApp can use data from the algorithm but also data entered by Polling Station members.

Risk management

There is no risk because the voter decides which polling station to visit. There is no automated decision-making. Bias does not play a role because the number of voters is counted independently of personal data.

Legal basis

Electoral Act

Operations

Data

The Polling StationApp records that people voted but not who. The numbers are used for the algorithm.

Technical design

Hourly averages, historical curves over time and linear regression. Based on the turnout in the first three hours of opening of each polling station (source Polling StationApp), the hourly average per polling station is calculated and then a forecast is made for each polling station over the next 10 hours. For crowding, categorisation is made to Normal, Average and Crowded based on historical turnout curves for all polling stations, in the categories Small, Ordinary, Large, Extra Large. For ballot paper consumption, a linear forecast is made based on usage.

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