Hestia end-user cost module

Ministry of Housing and Planning

This module was developed to model end-user costs when applying different heat scenarios.

Last change on 7th of November 2025, at 15:25 (CET) | Publication Standard 1.0

• Publication category: Other algorithms
• Impact assessment: DPIA
• Status: In use

General information

Theme

• Living
• Space and Infrastructure

Begin date

Oktober

Contact information

https://dataportaal.pbl.nl/Hestia

Responsible use

Goal and impact

Switching to sustainable heat through an area-based approach by municipalities requires feasible and financially responsible choices for residents and building owners. For this, municipalities need insight into end-user costs to compare the feasibility and affordability of heat strategies.

The Hestia end-user cost module aims to model end-user costs for different heat scenarios. This modelled data is made available to municipalities through the End-User Cost Tool. With this tool, municipalities have an additional source of information for understanding the end-user costs related to different heat strategies. VRO thus makes the modelled data available in a way that fits the policy context.

Considerations

Municipalities should make future-proof plans when choosing a heat strategy. As this is a future scenario, it is not possible to base it only on current and historical data.

With that, the justification for deploying modelling is that this is the first step to gain insight into a possible future perspective. It remains a model-based insight; taking into account appropriate transparency in this. This means the following:

1. The assumptions underlying this modelling are named and available

2. The source code used for the modelling is made available by TNO (ambition early 2026).

In the positioning of the information, attention is also given to the fact that the modelled data is not the only source of information that municipalities should use to make choices.

Human intervention

The results of the modelling are part of the sources of information that municipalities can use to determine their heat strategies. However - the actual determination of heat strategies follows a planning process. Municipalities can make use of the explanation in the Explanatory Memorandum in the Wgiw and the support, including a handbook, from the NPLW. It is expected that municipalities will also use more local and current insights in this, for example, and the outcomes will be weighed and deployed in a broader framework.

This means that the information from the modelling can never be used for decision-making in isolation; the municipalities' own frameworks are always required for this.

The outcomes from the modelling are also tested by various parties (including TNO, RVO, PBL) for;

1. Substantive consistency

2. In comparison with other models

Where applicable, this leads to adjustments in the model; and hence the modelling outcomes.

Risk management

Some risks were identified when deploying modelling; the main ones are listed below:

1. The information from the modelling can be made available at the individual level. However - this would mean using personal data. To avoid traceability to individuals, it was decided to make information available only for a minimum group size of 15 dwellings.

2. The interpretation of the information requires knowledge of the subject matter. It was therefore chosen not to make the information available publicly in principle; but on a login basis.

Legal basis

There is no explicit legal basis for deploying hestia end-user costs. The aim is primarily to support municipalities in the heat transition task; and then specifically the drafting of heat programmes

Elaboration on impact assessments

Besides a pre-scan DPIA, an accountability document was also prepared for the deployment of the modelled outcomes and what choices were made in it.

Impact assessment

Pre-scan DPIA

Operations

Data

The data used for the hestia model are described here; Functional design Hestia 1.0 | Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving

Specifically for end-user cost module and its application, the following document has been prepared: Background Note Data Tool End User Costs | Publication | Home | Volkshuisvesting Nederland

Technical design

The following sources can be used for the specific technical processing & application of data:

Hestia - PBL Data Portal - PBL Planning Office for the Living Environment

Functional design Hestia 1.0 | Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Background memorandum Data Tool End User Costs | Publication | Home | Volkshuisvesting Nederland

External provider

TNO

Link to code base

https://github.com/pbl-nl/model-hestia-public