Please note: The algorithm descriptions in English have been automatically translated. Errors may have been introduced in this process. For the original descriptions, go to the Dutch version of the Algorithm Register.
Algorithm expected revenue and expenditure Justice and Security
- Publication category
- Other algorithms
- Impact assessment
- DPIA
- Status
- In use
General information
Theme
Begin date
Contact information
Responsible use
Goal and impact
The algorithm is used to get a good picture of expected income and expenditure and, where necessary, to manage accordingly. The algorithm does not use personal data. The algorithm only uses data from the ministry's financial records. JenV regularly checks the algorithm for correctness and completeness, for example by checking whether all expenditure has been included. In addition, JenV reviews each year which version of the algorithm predicts best for an organisational unit. Jen-V then uses this model for that year.
Considerations
The algorithm is used to get a good picture of the expected income and expenditure and to manage accordingly where necessary. The algorithm predicts the expected income and expenditure (the likely course) of the ministry. Forecasting income and expenditure without algorithms takes a lot of time.
Human intervention
There is no automatic decision-making. Employees can view the results of the algorithm on a dashboard and use them as input in carrying out their regular work. . For example, by making adjustments to expected income and expenditure. The dashboard shows possible large differences between predicted and actual income and expenditure. The dashboard indicates that they are predictions, and what the difference is between the predicted and actual income and expenditure. The dashboard also shows which expenses (cost types) were difficult to predict in the previous year.
Risk management
JenV regularly checks the algorithm for accuracy and completeness, for example by checking whether all expenses are included. In addition, JenV reviews each year which version of the algorithm predicts best for an organisational unit. JenV then uses this model for that year.
Legal basis
Directorate of Financial and Economic Affairs (DFEZ) is responsible for the financial management of the entire Ministry of Justice and Security (Article 4.1d and Article 4.1f of the State FEZ Decree).
Links to legal bases
Impact assessment
Operations
Data
To make the forecast, only the realisation figures of the past 5 years are used, including cost centre and cost type. No personal data are used in this algorithm.
Technical design
For predicting the likely course, we use two prediction algorithms: Arima and ETS. Both are time-series algorithms. This means that a prediction is made based on the past. In these cases, the past consists of the realisations of the past five years. Both algorithms analyse realisations at cost centre and cost type level from previous years and try to recognise patterns in them. These patterns are used to predict realisations at the same cost centres and cost types for the current year. For each cost centre, expenditure patterns can be very different. For one pattern, Arima works better and for another, ETS works better. To determine which forecasting algorithm provides the best prediction, at the beginning of a new calendar year we run the algorithm once over the past year. In this way, the best model fitting the pattern is always used. The moment it is determined which forecasting algorithm will be used per cost centre, the new year can be forecast.
External provider
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