Please note: The algorithm descriptions in English have been automatically translated. Errors may have been introduced in this process. For the original descriptions, go to the Dutch version of the Algorithm Register.
Risk model for decline in turnover under the NOW scheme
- Publication category
- Impactful algorithms
- Impact assessment
- Field not filled in.
- Status
- Out of use
General information
Theme
Begin date
End date
Contact information
Responsible use
Goal and impact
The aim of this algorithm (the risk model) is to assist the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment in deciding which NOW applications should be examined further to verify the accuracy of the reported loss of turnover.
The risk model compares the information provided by the applicant in the NOW application with information from public sources and with information from other government organisations. A very large number of NOW applications have been submitted. The use of the risk model enables decisions to be made more quickly. As a result, employers receive a decision as soon as possible.
For the vast majority of applicants, this means they will receive a decision on their NOW application quickly, without the need for further investigation. For those applicants who are selected for further assessment, this means that the reported loss of turnover will be investigated in more detail, partly with the help of the risk model. If a NOW application is subject to further investigation, it will take longer to reach a decision than if it is not.
Ultimately, the investigation may reveal a different percentage of turnover loss than that stated by the applicant in the NOW application. As a result, the final grant amount may differ from the amount the applicant had expected based on the NOW application.
Considerations
Advantages:
Scale: Almost half a million applications have been submitted, spread across eight different rounds. If the Ministry were to check all these NOW applications, it would take a great deal of time and money. By using the risk model to select NOW applications for review, we keep costs as low as possible for everyone: for employers, but also for the government.
Efficient process; The use of the algorithm (risk model) ensures the process is organised efficiently. The risk model helps staff make effective and accurate decisions based on objective information. As a result, the vast majority of applicants receive a decision quickly without the need for further investigation. In this way, large numbers of applications can be processed and returned to the UWV swiftly.
Standardised procedure; the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment uses information from other public sources for the risk model. This includes information from, for example, the Chamber of Commerce regarding the establishment of the business and its ownership. This objective information is incorporated into the risk model. In this way, the risk model helps staff to make decisions based on objective information and comparisons.
Disadvantages
The risk model provides an indication as to whether the reported loss of turnover in a NOW application is accurate. This indication is based on information from public sources and information from other government organisations. The model cannot take into account every unique situation that may apply to an employer. Consequently, it does not always provide an accurate reflection of reality. Staff take this into account and therefore review the NOW applications flagged by the model on a case-by-case basis.
On the one hand, there are cases where NOW applications have been selected, but the investigation reveals no inaccuracies. For these applicants, this results in a longer processing time and an additional administrative burden. This is because the applicant must demonstrate that the information provided in the NOW application is correct by referring to data from their records. On the other hand, not all possible risks are included in the risk model. As a result, incorrect NOW applications may not be investigated.
Human intervention
The risk model supports staff in the selection process, enabling them to make well-informed and efficient decisions. The advice provided by the risk model is not necessarily decisive, and the final selections are always made through human intervention by staff, in accordance with the four-eyes principle. The selection process and the selected files are monitored through checks at multiple levels. The risk model has been evaluated several times in recent years and adjusted where necessary.
Risk management
The risk model has been evaluated and revised several times in recent years, based on new insights gained from the results of completed studies or on new objective information provided by other government organisations.
Legal basis
Temporary emergency measure to bridge the gap and preserve employment (first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth)
Operations
Data
Information provided in NOW applications, information from other government sources (including the Tax and Customs Administration, Statistics Netherlands and the Chamber of Commerce) and information from NOW applications relating to other NOW tranches (if an employer has submitted more than one NOW application).
Technical design
The risk model utilises insights from historical data and forecasts/estimates of a situation. It employs functions that establish links, rank, categorise and add relevant information. The risk model provides support and advice through analyses and comparisons of, on the one hand, information provided in the NOW applications and, on the other hand, information from public sources and data from government bodies. This supports and advises staff in the selection process for NOW applications, to verify the accuracy of the NOW application.
External provider
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