Please note: The algorithm descriptions in English have been automatically translated. Errors may have been introduced in this process. For the original descriptions, go to the Dutch version of the Algorithm Register.
Population forecast model
- Publication category
- Other algorithms
- Impact assessment
- Field not filled in.
- Status
- In use
General information
Theme
Begin date
Contact information
Responsible use
Goal and impact
The aim is to understand the (possible) future development of The Hague's population by age.
The model has no direct impact on citizens' daily lives.
Considerations
GBPRO is a model created by and for Dutch municipalities. There are no comparable alternatives available where you can best estimate the situation in terms of mortality, birth and migration at local (municipality) level.
Human intervention
The results of the model are input for processing by various policy fields, through human intervention. The algorithm is run at the request of the Board of B&W and is advisory only. B&W can decide to stop forecasting.
Risk management
Results of the model are always analysed by specialists. Annually, the results of the forecast are compared with the realisation.
Legal basis
The outcomes are input for municipal policymakers such as e.g. in the fields of spatial planning, urban development, social development, labour market, public housing, economy, health and welfare and education.
Operations
Data
Aggregate data of at least 5 years for: Base Population by age and sex, Births by maternal age, Mortality by age and sex, Departure Domestic by age and sex, Departure Foreign by age and sex, Settlement Domestic by age and sex, Settlement Foreign by age and sex, The most up-to-date housing programming.
Technical design
Based on the assumption of the (corrected) probabilities, the forecast for the first year by age and sex is prepared by first determining the correction for domestic departure, after which the total departures domestic and foreign are determined. To then determine the number of births, first settlement, departure, both domestic and foreign, and mortality are calculated, after which the total number of births can be calculated. Once the number of births is calculated, these are zeroed out and divided by sex. The process then determines departures again, inflows and deaths. The final step is the initial population by age and sex plus settlement by age and sex minus departure by age and sex minus mortality by age and sex. This last cycle yields the final population of the first forecast year. This population is the starting population of the second forecast year. In this way, the forecast is calculated the set number of years ahead. Using the correction matrix, it is possible to recalculate the forecast with a changed assumption.
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